Mount Aloysius College' financial profile with decreasing net tuition revenue and a full-accrual deficit in fiscal 2017 compared to its historically full-accrual surpluses


The college's declining enrollment for the past two years with management's expectation of similar declines in full-time student enrollment for fall 2017, coupled with 
weak matriculation compared to historical levels. Mount Aloysius is highly 
dependent on student-generated revenue, and the college has started to see the 
effects of declining enrollment on its financial profile with decreasing net 
tuition revenue and a full-accrual deficit in fiscal 2017 compared to its 
historically full-accrual surpluses; this further supports the rating action.

We could lower the rating further or revise the outlook to negative if 
enrollment and demand pressure were to continue such that operating deficits 
persist or financial resource ratios weaken significantly from current levels, 
or if the college were to issue additional debt without commensurate growth in 
resource levels

Although unlikely during the outlook period, we could raise the rating over 
the long term if the college were to maintain enrollment and improve demand 
metrics such as matriculation and retention, or if operations were to return 
to full-accrual surpluses. In addition, we would have a positive view of a 
more geographically diverse student body and increased fundraising.