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Should I Buy NASDAQ:CARA Stock? (20% Forecasted Return) | CARA Cara Therapeutics Stock Forecast



If, for example, a facility matured in 18 months, we could include the borrowing availability as a source of liquidity in year one, but exclude the amount in year two under the exceptional and strong descriptors (as well as include any drawn portions as debt maturities under uses of liquidity). This is because we do not assume an extension of bank lines--regardless of the company's perceived credit strength or issuer credit rating. For instance, whether the issuer credit rating on the company is speculative grade or investment grade, we do not assume bank lines will be extended beyond the current stated maturity.The various qualitative factors in the criteria help to identify strengths and weaknesses within a company's future liquidity position that numerical ratios might not fully capture. While there is no size bias in our liquidity assessment, generally, lower-rated entities might meet the quantitative requirements for strong or exceptional liquidity but fail to meet corresponding qualitative factors. We estimate CARA Cara Therapeutics stock forecast parameters by: Williams %R with Chi-Square because has further large bullet maturities next year and its reliance on alternative financing (20% Forecasted Return)

NASDAQ:CARA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) as of 24 Jun 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

Stock: CARA Cara Therapeutics

Time series to forecast n: 24 Jun 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

x axis:Likelihood %
y axis:Potential Impact %
z axis:Color (yellow to green) Technical Analysis %

Stock Forecast Criteria and Models for CARA Cara Therapeutics

  • If the cost of servicing or the likelihood of redeeming the hybrid instrument would increase in response to a worsening of the issuer's creditworthiness, the hybrid is assessed as having no equity content.
  • To calculate ACE, irrespective of whether the entity operates in jurisdictions where Basel III is implemented, we deduct from reported common equity the net DTAs that rely on future profitability for their recoverability (including tax loss carry-forwards). We deduct net DTAs to reflect the regulatory approach that allows institutions to offset their DTAs against their deferred tax liabilities (DTLs). In these instances, if there is a net DTL, we make neither a deduction nor an addition to calculate ACE. When netting DTAs and DTLs, we exclude DTLs related to goodwill and intangibles and pensions, if any, because they are already accounted for when adjusting for such items. We deduct the full amount of these DTAs, irrespective of any Basel III transitional arrangements that regulators may apply.
  • Assets under management:Asset managers are exposed not only to legal, reputational, and operational risks, but also to credit risk within their cash and money market funds. In addition to the risk weight based on revenues by business line, we apply a risk weight of 6.25% to cash and money market AUM. This is because, in our view, a number of asset managers may be led to support their monetary funds during a crisis to prevent a loss in value for investors.
  • For holding companies of corporate groups and nonregulated nonbank financial institutions, the ICR is typically the same as the GCP. For intermediate holding companies of corporate groups and nonregulated nonbank financial institutions, the ICR is typically the same as the rating on its core operating entities.
  • If we consider that the payment risk (that is, the likelihood of loss absorption or cash conservation) for a specific instrument is not reflected in either the starting point or the minimum notching, we apply wider notching at issuance. We may also revise the notching as part of our surveillance if the payment risk increases or decreases over the life of the instrument. We do not impose a limit on the number of notches that we may deduct for payment risk.
  • On a case-specific basis, we may apply the stress test to more than one country, if we consider the entity to have material exposure to two or more countries. When applying the stress test to more than one country at a time, we might assume the stress affects two or more countries at the same time if we consider economic correlation among the countries to be significant. Should an entity fail the stress test, we would cap the rating at the foreign currency rating on the lowest-rated country for which it failed the test. If we determine that the issuer has no material single-country exposure to a country whose sovereign is rated lower than the potential rating, we may not apply a stress test.
  • We apply risk weights to two different types of equity investments: listed securities and unlisted securities. RACF classifies listed equity investments into four equity market groups by country, based on several factors such as the volatility we have observed in that country's main stock market index over the past 30 years, the level of stress in the economy experienced in the worst one-year performance of the domestic index, the BICRA capital markets assessment, the foreign currency sovereign rating, and the inclusion of the country in one of the MSCI world indices.

Assumptions Underlying The Forecast Model for CARA Cara Therapeutics

When determining the cash to be included under sources (A), we use cash that will be available to cover monetary outflows. As a result, we may make haircuts to account for cash trapped overseas (for example, haircut for taxes payable upon repatriation of cash held abroad), apply a discount to lower-quality marketable securities, and exclude restricted cash held for specific purposes.

Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is CARA Cara Therapeutics stock buy or sell?
A: If, for example, a facility matured in 18 months, we could include the borrowing availability as a source of liquidity in year one, but exclude the amount in year two under the exceptional and strong descriptors (as well as include any drawn portions as debt maturities under uses of liquidity). This is because we do not assume an extension of bank lines--regardless of the company's perceived credit strength or issuer credit rating. For instance, whether the issuer credit rating on the company is speculative grade or investment grade, we do not assume bank lines will be extended beyond the current stated maturity.
Q: Is CARA Cara Therapeutics stock expected to go up?
A: The various qualitative factors in the criteria help to identify strengths and weaknesses within a company's future liquidity position that numerical ratios might not fully capture. While there is no size bias in our liquidity assessment, generally, lower-rated entities might meet the quantitative requirements for strong or exceptional liquidity but fail to meet corresponding qualitative factors.
Q: What is the forecast for CARA Cara Therapeutics ?
A: When determining the cash to be included under sources (A), we use cash that will be available to cover monetary outflows. As a result, we may make haircuts to account for cash trapped overseas (for example, haircut for taxes payable upon repatriation of cash held abroad), apply a discount to lower-quality marketable securities, and exclude restricted cash held for specific purposes.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CARA Cara Therapeutics ?
A: The consensus rating for CARA Cara Therapeutics is 81.
Q: What are the risks of investing CARA Cara Therapeutics ?
A: We use risk analysis for CARA Cara Therapeutics because has further large bullet maturities next year and its reliance on alternative financing


CARA Cara Therapeutics
AC Investment Research

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