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Should I Buy NASDAQ:CLDB Stock? (8% Forecasted Return) | CLDB Cortland Bancorp Stock Forecast



In this scenario, we would still include the existing debt maturity as a use of liquidity in our A/B and A-B calculations, if the debt matures within the corresponding liquidity horizon. The rationale is that our liquidity assessment is essentially a stress test against a sudden and severe loss of capital markets access availability. For companies with an anchor of at least 'bbb-' that meet certain characteristics, as outlined in paragraphs 38 and 39 of the criteria, we may use a shorter three- to six-month time horizon when assessing upcoming maturities.While we only include contractual acquisitions when calculating A/B and A-B, when evaluating qualitative factors, we focus more on a company's track record and our expectation for financial management. In this respect, the quantitative and qualitative factors under the liquidity criteria are meant to complement each other and produce a more comprehensive view of a company's future liquidity position. We estimate CLDB Cortland Bancorp stock forecast parameters by: Ratiocator (RAT) with Spearman Correlation because we use the multipliers stemming from the Gaussian distribution (with a 50% add-on for fat tail events) to transform a VaR at a x-confidence level into a VaR at the chosen confidence level (8% Forecasted Return)

NASDAQ:CLDB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) as of 22 Jun 2022 for (n+1 year)

Stock: CLDB Cortland Bancorp

Time series to forecast n: 22 Jun 2022 for (n+1 year)

x axis:Likelihood %
y axis:Potential Impact %
z axis:Color (yellow to green) Technical Analysis %

Stock Forecast Criteria and Models for CLDB Cortland Bancorp

  • We apply risk weights to two different types of equity investments: listed securities and unlisted securities. RACF classifies listed equity investments into four equity market groups by country, based on several factors such as the volatility we have observed in that country's main stock market index over the past 30 years, the level of stress in the economy experienced in the worst one-year performance of the domestic index, the BICRA capital markets assessment, the foreign currency sovereign rating, and the inclusion of the country in one of the MSCI world indices.
  • The analysis of specific instruments includes consideration of priorities within an obligor's capital structure and the potential effects of collateral and recovery estimates in the event of the obligor's default. The analysis may apply notching to instruments that rank above or below their obligor's senior, unsecured debt. For example, subordinated debt would generally receive a rating below the senior debt rating. Conversely, secured debt may receive a rating above the unsecured debt rating.
  • We establish a floor RAC charge of zero for each equities group to ensure that unrealized gains cannot lower the risk weight below zero.
  • Hybrids issued by operating subsidiaries that cannot benefit the wider group in this way are treated as having no equity content in our group consolidated analysis. If, however, they can absorb losses or conserve cash at the issuer level, they are eligible for equity content in our analysis of the operating subsidiary on a stand-alone basis.
  • In certain exceptional cases, we may consider deducting a greater amount of DTAs that arise from timing differences than the amount resulting from the calculation in the previous paragraphs. This may be the case when both the regulatory deduction of such DTAs (that arise from timing differences) is higher than the deduction described in the previous paragraph and we consider that this higher deduction appropriately reflects the risks of unexpected losses embedded in the stock of DTAs accumulated by the institution.
  • If the instrument includes features that enable the issuer to modify it in such a way that the risk of loss absorption or cash conservation would increase, we incorporate those features into the rating from the issue date. Where an external event must occur before an issuer may modify the instrument, we do not typically incorporate the potential change in the terms of the instrument into the rating.
  • In some instances, when the tranche ratings are unavailable, we may use the regulatory risk weight to infer a rating equivalent for the tranche, and then use the risk weight that pertains to that rating

Assumptions Underlying The Forecast Model for CLDB Cortland Bancorp

Given the earnings volatility companies experience, we have specified for these issuers a more stringent decline in EBITDA percentage for each liquidity category to the extent our cash flow forecasts are not already assuming a downside scenario.

Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is CLDB Cortland Bancorp stock buy or sell?
A: In this scenario, we would still include the existing debt maturity as a use of liquidity in our A/B and A-B calculations, if the debt matures within the corresponding liquidity horizon. The rationale is that our liquidity assessment is essentially a stress test against a sudden and severe loss of capital markets access availability. For companies with an anchor of at least 'bbb-' that meet certain characteristics, as outlined in paragraphs 38 and 39 of the criteria, we may use a shorter three- to six-month time horizon when assessing upcoming maturities.
Q: Is CLDB Cortland Bancorp stock expected to go up?
A: While we only include contractual acquisitions when calculating A/B and A-B, when evaluating qualitative factors, we focus more on a company's track record and our expectation for financial management. In this respect, the quantitative and qualitative factors under the liquidity criteria are meant to complement each other and produce a more comprehensive view of a company's future liquidity position.
Q: What is the forecast for CLDB Cortland Bancorp ?
A: Given the earnings volatility companies experience, we have specified for these issuers a more stringent decline in EBITDA percentage for each liquidity category to the extent our cash flow forecasts are not already assuming a downside scenario.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CLDB Cortland Bancorp ?
A: The consensus rating for CLDB Cortland Bancorp is 89.
Q: What are the risks of investing CLDB Cortland Bancorp ?
A: We use risk analysis for CLDB Cortland Bancorp because we use the multipliers stemming from the Gaussian distribution (with a 50% add-on for fat tail events) to transform a VaR at a x-confidence level into a VaR at the chosen confidence level


CLDB Cortland Bancorp

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