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Should I Buy NASDAQ:MCHX Stock? (3% Forecasted Return) | MCHX Marchex Stock Forecast



In this scenario, we would still include the existing debt maturity as a use of liquidity in our A/B and A-B calculations, if the debt matures within the corresponding liquidity horizon. The rationale is that our liquidity assessment is essentially a stress test against a sudden and severe loss of capital markets access availability. For companies with an anchor of at least 'bbb-' that meet certain characteristics, as outlined in paragraphs 38 and 39 of the criteria, we may use a shorter three- to six-month time horizon when assessing upcoming maturities.Given that it can be difficult to identify outstanding CP at any point in time, when considering coverage, we may include our expectations for peak outstanding CP during the year as opposed to CP balances as of the last filing date, especially if we believe reported balances are not reflective of typical borrowing patterns. We estimate MCHX Marchex stock forecast parameters by: Parabolic SAR (PSAR) with Chi-Square because of derivatives receivables represent more than 0.5% of total assets for entities reporting under U.S. GAAP (3% Forecasted Return)

NASDAQ:MCHX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) as of 21 Jun 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

Stock: MCHX Marchex

Time series to forecast n: 21 Jun 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

x axis:Likelihood %
y axis:Potential Impact %
z axis:Color (yellow to green) Technical Analysis %

Stock Forecast Criteria and Models for MCHX Marchex

  • Revenue-based risk weights:Our risk weights to account for operational risk for different business lines are based on the revenue these businesses generate (see table 12). We apply risk weights based on the highest annual revenue of the past three years. This is intended to accommodate recent activities and growth momentum and to avoid providing capital relief to entities that experienced a recent drop in revenues as a consequence of operational or trading losses.
  • ACE does not include any hybrid capital instruments reported under "minority interest: equity" on an entity's balance sheet. Subject to our criteria for the equity content of hybrids, we may include these instruments in our definition of TAC.
  • We have calibrated RACF so that an 8% RAC ratio means that a bank should, in our view, have enough capital to withstand substantial stress ('A' type) in developed markets. This calibration intends to make our criteria for assessing bank capital consistent with those for rating structured finance transactions and issuers from other corporate and government sectors.
  • We first determine the entity's potential rating, which we then compare with the sovereign foreign currency rating on the country (or countries) where the entity has material exposure(s). By "potential" rating, we mean the rating that we would assign according to the relevant criteria for the entity, such as corporate rating criteria, bank rating criteria, etc., prior to applying a stress test for ratings above the sovereign.
  • A potential ICR on a group member that is lower than its SACP reflects our view that if the group or relevant government were in a credit-stress scenario, the group or government would draw resources from the group member (an example of extraordinary negative intervention), thereby weakening its creditworthiness.
  • We aim to apply a reasonably consistent definition of ACE and TAC, but specific circumstances or reporting differences may require additional adjustments to reported common shareholders' equity. Adjustments may, for instance, apply when we assess that some transactions artificially inflate reported equity, such as unseasoned revaluation of an entity's own premises, reciprocal cross holdings, or the issuance of capital instruments that are indirectly funded by the entity through a related party, such as a holding company or a sister company.
  • The risk weight for "other items" is 50% higher than the corresponding risk weight for unsecured retail lending, except when "other items" are more than 5% of total exposures.

Assumptions Underlying The Forecast Model for MCHX Marchex

Likewise, we do not consider factoring programs under sources of liquidity. Unlike asset-based lending (ABL) facilities, factoring is more of a sales transaction and not a loan. In addition, these transactions tend to be very short term. For this reason, we would not consider them a committed source of future liquidity over a 12-month period.

Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is MCHX Marchex stock buy or sell?
A: In this scenario, we would still include the existing debt maturity as a use of liquidity in our A/B and A-B calculations, if the debt matures within the corresponding liquidity horizon. The rationale is that our liquidity assessment is essentially a stress test against a sudden and severe loss of capital markets access availability. For companies with an anchor of at least 'bbb-' that meet certain characteristics, as outlined in paragraphs 38 and 39 of the criteria, we may use a shorter three- to six-month time horizon when assessing upcoming maturities.
Q: Is MCHX Marchex stock expected to go up?
A: Given that it can be difficult to identify outstanding CP at any point in time, when considering coverage, we may include our expectations for peak outstanding CP during the year as opposed to CP balances as of the last filing date, especially if we believe reported balances are not reflective of typical borrowing patterns.
Q: What is the forecast for MCHX Marchex ?
A: Likewise, we do not consider factoring programs under sources of liquidity. Unlike asset-based lending (ABL) facilities, factoring is more of a sales transaction and not a loan. In addition, these transactions tend to be very short term. For this reason, we would not consider them a committed source of future liquidity over a 12-month period.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MCHX Marchex ?
A: The consensus rating for MCHX Marchex is 76.
Q: What are the risks of investing MCHX Marchex ?
A: We use risk analysis for MCHX Marchex because of derivatives receivables represent more than 0.5% of total assets for entities reporting under U.S. GAAP


AC Investment Research

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