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Should I Buy NSE:SHRIRAMCIT Stock? (22% Forecasted Return) | SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited Stock Forecast



Given that we exclude proposed "best efforts" or potential financings as a source of liquidity, we also exclude from uses of liquidity acquisitions and other discretionary spending that are contingent on the successful issuance of new financing to support the proposed transaction.In our assessment of a company's liquidity, we also consider the impact of unique industry characteristics. We estimate SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited stock forecast parameters by: Triple Exponential Moving Average (TRIX) with Linear Regression because of derivatives receivables represent more than 5% of total assets for entities reporting under IFRS (or under local GAAP similar to IFRS for the accounting of derivatives) and are domiciled in countries for which our BICRA group is '5' and above. (22% Forecasted Return)

NSE:SHRIRAMCIT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) as of 21 Jun 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

Stock: SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited

Time series to forecast n: 21 Jun 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

x axis:Likelihood %
y axis:Potential Impact %
z axis:Color (yellow to green) Technical Analysis %

Stock Forecast Criteria and Models for SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited

  • The fifth part of the rating analysis is the analysis of counterparty risk. That analysis focuses on third-party obligations to either hold assets (including cash) or make financial payments that may affect the creditworthiness of structured finance instruments. Examples of counterparty risks include exposures to institutions that maintain key accounts and exposures to the providers of derivative contracts such as interest rate swaps and currency swaps. The counterparty risk analysis considers both the type of dependency and the rating of the counterparty for each counterparty relationship in a transaction.
  • ACE does not include any hybrid capital instruments reported under "minority interest: equity" on an entity's balance sheet. Subject to our criteria for the equity content of hybrids, we may include these instruments in our definition of TAC.
  • Entities with no approved market risk internal models for regulatory purposes:We apply a 1.5 multiplier to the regulatory capital requirement figure if it is derived from the Basel standardized approach. This is regardless of whether the entity is domiciled in a Basel 2.5 jurisdiction.
  • We generally consider exposure to be material when it represents approximately 25% or more of an entity's total exposure, (as measured per the metrics in paragraph 43) taking into account our views of current and expected exposures. We also apply the sovereign stress on exposures below 25% with regard to the country of domicile if we believe a company could fail the sovereign stress test.
  • Obligated groups are created for purposes of securing debt, and do not have operating or governance independence from the larger group. While debt covenants may contain some restrictions, for example limitations on the transfer of assets out of the obligated group, covenants are generally not strong enough to insulate the obligated group from the strategic and operating influence of the group. An obligated group, therefore, is typically not rated higher than the GCP.
  • Entities with no approved market risk internal models for regulatory purposes:We apply a 1.5 multiplier to the regulatory capital requirement figure if it is derived from the Basel standardized approach. This is regardless of whether the entity is domiciled in a Basel 2.5 jurisdiction.
  • For corporates, the country of domicile may still be relevant. We may use the country of domicile as the reference point in some cases--for instance, for globally diversified multinational companies operating in a large number of countries, if we believe there is no material exposure to a single country.

Assumptions Underlying The Forecast Model for SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited

If, for example, a facility matured in 18 months, we could include the borrowing availability as a source of liquidity in year one, but exclude the amount in year two under the exceptional and strong descriptors (as well as include any drawn portions as debt maturities under uses of liquidity). This is because we do not assume an extension of bank lines--regardless of the company's perceived credit strength or issuer credit rating. For instance, whether the issuer credit rating on the company is speculative grade or investment grade, we do not assume bank lines will be extended beyond the current stated maturity.

Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited stock buy or sell?
A: Given that we exclude proposed "best efforts" or potential financings as a source of liquidity, we also exclude from uses of liquidity acquisitions and other discretionary spending that are contingent on the successful issuance of new financing to support the proposed transaction.
Q: Is SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited stock expected to go up?
A: In our assessment of a company's liquidity, we also consider the impact of unique industry characteristics.
Q: What is the forecast for SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited ?
A: If, for example, a facility matured in 18 months, we could include the borrowing availability as a source of liquidity in year one, but exclude the amount in year two under the exceptional and strong descriptors (as well as include any drawn portions as debt maturities under uses of liquidity). This is because we do not assume an extension of bank lines--regardless of the company's perceived credit strength or issuer credit rating. For instance, whether the issuer credit rating on the company is speculative grade or investment grade, we do not assume bank lines will be extended beyond the current stated maturity.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited ?
A: The consensus rating for SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited is 89.
Q: What are the risks of investing SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited ?
A: We use risk analysis for SHRIRAMCIT Shriram City Union Finance Limited because of derivatives receivables represent more than 5% of total assets for entities reporting under IFRS (or under local GAAP similar to IFRS for the accounting of derivatives) and are domiciled in countries for which our BICRA group is '5' and above.


AC Investment Research

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