## Abstract

We evaluate H&R Block prediction models with Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HRB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HRB stock.

Keywords: HRB, H&R Block, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. How useful are statistical predictions?
3. What is the use of Markov decision process? ## HRB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider H&R Block Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of HRB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Exponential Moving Average (EMA)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HRB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HRB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HRB H&R Block
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HRB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

H&R Block assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HRB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HRB stock.

### Financial State Forecast for HRB Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba3
Operational Risk 8765
Market Risk3268
Technical Analysis7355
Fundamental Analysis8271
Risk Unsystematic8464

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 754 signals.

## References

1. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
2. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
3. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
4. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
5. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
6. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
7. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HRB stock?
A: HRB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is HRB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HRB Stock.
Q: Is H&R Block stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for H&R Block is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HRB stock?
A: The consensus rating for HRB is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for HRB stock?
A: The prediction period for HRB is (n+1 year)

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