## Abstract

**We evaluate Moderna prediction models with Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the MRNA stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MRNA stock.**

**MRNA, Moderna, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
- What is the best way to predict stock prices?
- Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

## MRNA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Moderna Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of MRNA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Simple Moving Average (SMA)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({a}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MRNA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## MRNA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**MRNA Moderna

**Time series to forecast n: 31 Aug 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MRNA stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Moderna assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Simple Moving Average (SMA) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the MRNA stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MRNA stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for MRNA Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 85 | 76 |

Market Risk | 85 | 36 |

Technical Analysis | 36 | 67 |

Fundamental Analysis | 46 | 50 |

Risk Unsystematic | 45 | 71 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for MRNA stock?A: MRNA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test

Q: Is MRNA stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MRNA Stock.

Q: Is Moderna stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Moderna is HoldBuy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of MRNA stock?

A: The consensus rating for MRNA is HoldBuy.

Q: What is the prediction period for MRNA stock?

A: The prediction period for MRNA is (n+4 weeks)