## Abstract

We evaluate Moderna prediction models with Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MRNA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MRNA stock.

Keywords: MRNA, Moderna, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings ## MRNA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Moderna Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of MRNA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Simple Moving Average (SMA)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MRNA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## MRNA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MRNA Moderna
Time series to forecast n: 31 Aug 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MRNA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Moderna assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Simple Moving Average (SMA) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MRNA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MRNA stock.

### Financial State Forecast for MRNA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 8576
Market Risk8536
Technical Analysis3667
Fundamental Analysis4650
Risk Unsystematic4571

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 728 signals.

## References

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2. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
3. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
4. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
5. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
6. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
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Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MRNA stock?
A: MRNA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is MRNA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MRNA Stock.
Q: Is Moderna stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Moderna is HoldBuy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MRNA stock?
A: The consensus rating for MRNA is HoldBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MRNA stock?
A: The prediction period for MRNA is (n+4 weeks)