Modelling A.I. in Economics

What are buy sell or hold recommendations? (GNRC Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Generac prediction models with Robinson Oscillators and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GNRC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GNRC stock.


Keywords: GNRC, Generac, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

GNRC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Generac Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of GNRC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Robinson Oscillators) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GNRC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GNRC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GNRC Generac
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GNRC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Generac assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Robinson Oscillators with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GNRC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GNRC stock.

Financial State Forecast for GNRC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 3280
Market Risk6367
Technical Analysis4679
Fundamental Analysis5944
Risk Unsystematic7363

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 593 signals.

References

  1. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
  2. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
  3. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  4. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  5. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  6. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  7. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GNRC stock?
A: GNRC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Robinson Oscillators and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is GNRC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GNRC Stock.
Q: Is Generac stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Generac is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GNRC stock?
A: The consensus rating for GNRC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GNRC stock?
A: The prediction period for GNRC is (n+16 weeks)

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