## Abstract

**We evaluate S&P/ASX 200 Index prediction models with Profit and Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the S&P/ASX 200 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy S&P/ASX 200 Index stock.**

**S&P/ASX 200 Index, S&P/ASX 200 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Is now good time to invest?
- Is Target price a good indicator?
- Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

## S&P/ASX 200 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of S&P/ASX 200 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and Î³ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Paired T-Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Profit) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({a}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of S&P/ASX 200 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**S&P/ASX 200 Index S&P/ASX 200 Index

**Time series to forecast n: 31 Aug 2022**for (n+1 year)

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy S&P/ASX 200 Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

S&P/ASX 200 Index assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Profit with Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the S&P/ASX 200 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy S&P/ASX 200 Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 86 | 90 |

Market Risk | 54 | 38 |

Technical Analysis | 38 | 38 |

Fundamental Analysis | 88 | 42 |

Risk Unsystematic | 57 | 65 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
- Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
- Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
- Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
- Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
- Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
- Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for S&P/ASX 200 Index stock?A: S&P/ASX 200 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Profit and Paired T-Test

Q: Is S&P/ASX 200 Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock.

Q: Is S&P/ASX 200 Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for S&P/ASX 200 Index is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of S&P/ASX 200 Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for S&P/ASX 200 Index is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for S&P/ASX 200 Index stock?

A: The prediction period for S&P/ASX 200 Index is (n+1 year)