Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. We evaluate Aavas Financiers Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE AAVAS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE AAVAS stock.

Keywords: NSE AAVAS, Aavas Financiers Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Short/Long Term Stocks
2. How useful are statistical predictions?
3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning? ## NSE AAVAS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

With technological advancements, big data can be easily generated and collected in many applications. Embedded in these big data are useful information and knowledge that can be discovered by machine learning and data mining models, techniques or algorithms. We consider Aavas Financiers Limited Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE AAVAS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE AAVAS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## NSE AAVAS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE AAVAS Aavas Financiers Limited
Time series to forecast n: 27 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE AAVAS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Aavas Financiers Limited assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE AAVAS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE AAVAS stock.

### Financial State Forecast for NSE AAVAS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B2
Operational Risk 8152
Market Risk6987
Technical Analysis8938
Fundamental Analysis8648
Risk Unsystematic5050

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 654 signals.

## References

1. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
2. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
3. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
4. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
5. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
6. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
7. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE AAVAS stock?
A: NSE AAVAS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is NSE AAVAS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE AAVAS Stock.
Q: Is Aavas Financiers Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Aavas Financiers Limited is Sell and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE AAVAS stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE AAVAS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE AAVAS stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE AAVAS is (n+8 weeks)