Recently, numerous investigations for stock price prediction and portfolio management using machine learning have been trying to develop efficient mechanical trading systems. But these systems have a limitation in that they are mainly based on the supervised learning which is not so adequate for learning problems with long-term goals and delayed rewards. This paper proposes a method of applying reinforcement learning, suitable for modeling and learning various kinds of interactions in real situations, to the problem of stock price prediction. We evaluate Barrick Gold Corporation prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ABX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ABX stock.

Keywords: ABX, Barrick Gold Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Prediction Modeling
2. What is prediction in deep learning?
3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

## ABX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models which are known to be dynamic and effective in stock-market predictions. We consider Barrick Gold Corporation Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of ABX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Beta)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ABX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ABX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ABX Barrick Gold Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 24 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ABX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Barrick Gold Corporation assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ABX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ABX stock.

### Financial State Forecast for ABX Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 4250
Market Risk7834
Technical Analysis6575
Fundamental Analysis5945
Risk Unsystematic8453

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 524 signals.

## References

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2. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
3. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
4. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
5. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
7. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ABX stock?
A: ABX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is ABX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ABX Stock.
Q: Is Barrick Gold Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Barrick Gold Corporation is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ABX stock?
A: The consensus rating for ABX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for ABX stock?
A: The prediction period for ABX is (n+1 year)