ADBE Options & Futures Prediction

Abstract

We evaluate Adobe Inc. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ADBE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADBE stock.

Keywords: ADBE, Adobe Inc., stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Operational Risk
2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
3. Reaction Function

ADBE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Adobe Inc. Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ADBE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ADBE stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ADBE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ADBE Adobe Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADBE stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Adobe Inc. assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ADBE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADBE stock.

Financial State Forecast for ADBE Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Baa2
Operational Risk	74	70
Market Risk	41	77
Technical Analysis	66	88
Fundamental Analysis	73	80
Risk Unsystematic	81	64

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 529 signals.

References

1. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
2. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
3. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
4. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
5. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
6. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
7. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ADBE stock?
A: ADBE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is ADBE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADBE Stock.
Q: Is Adobe Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Adobe Inc. is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ADBE stock?
A: The consensus rating for ADBE is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ADBE stock?
A: The prediction period for ADBE is (n+4 weeks)

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