## Abstract

**We evaluate Adobe Inc. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ADBE stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADBE stock.**

**ADBE, Adobe Inc., stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Operational Risk
- How do predictive algorithms actually work?
- Reaction Function

## ADBE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Adobe Inc. Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ADBE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Sign Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ADBE stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ADBE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**ADBE Adobe Inc.

**Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADBE stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Adobe Inc. assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ADBE stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADBE stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for ADBE Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | Baa2 |

Operational Risk | 74 | 70 |

Market Risk | 41 | 77 |

Technical Analysis | 66 | 88 |

Fundamental Analysis | 73 | 80 |

Risk Unsystematic | 81 | 64 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
- K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
- Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
- Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
- Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
- Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
- Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ADBE stock?A: ADBE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test

Q: Is ADBE stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADBE Stock.

Q: Is Adobe Inc. stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Adobe Inc. is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of ADBE stock?

A: The consensus rating for ADBE is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for ADBE stock?

A: The prediction period for ADBE is (n+4 weeks)