Time series forecasting has been widely used to determine the future prices of stock, and the analysis and modeling of finance time series importantly guide investors' decisions and trades. In addition, in a dynamic environment such as the stock market, the nonlinearity of the time series is pronounced, immediately affecting the efficacy of stock price forecasts. Thus, this paper proposes an intelligent time series prediction system that uses sliding-window metaheuristic optimization for the purpose of predicting the stock prices. We evaluate Apartment Income REIT prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AIRC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIRC stock.

Keywords: AIRC, Apartment Income REIT, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

## AIRC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We consider Apartment Income REIT Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of AIRC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AIRC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AIRC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AIRC Apartment Income REIT
Time series to forecast n: 17 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIRC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Apartment Income REIT assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AIRC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIRC stock.

### Financial State Forecast for AIRC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 3738
Market Risk5680
Technical Analysis3371
Fundamental Analysis3745
Risk Unsystematic7360

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 854 signals.

## References

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4. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
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7. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AIRC stock?
A: AIRC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Sign Test
Q: Is AIRC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIRC Stock.
Q: Is Apartment Income REIT stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Apartment Income REIT is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AIRC stock?
A: The consensus rating for AIRC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AIRC stock?
A: The prediction period for AIRC is (n+3 month)