AIZ Target Price Prediction

Abstract

We evaluate Assurant prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AIZ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIZ stock.

Keywords: AIZ, Assurant, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
2. Short/Long Term Stocks
3. What is prediction model?

AIZ Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Assurant Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of AIZ stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AIZ stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AIZ Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AIZ Assurant
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIZ stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Assurant assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AIZ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIZ stock.

Financial State Forecast for AIZ Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B1
Operational Risk	71	74
Market Risk	71	78
Technical Analysis	58	35
Fundamental Analysis	74	70
Risk Unsystematic	41	45

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 745 signals.

References

1. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
2. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
3. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
4. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
5. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
6. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
7. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AIZ stock?
A: AIZ stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is AIZ stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIZ Stock.
Q: Is Assurant stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Assurant is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AIZ stock?
A: The consensus rating for AIZ is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AIZ stock?
A: The prediction period for AIZ is (n+6 month)

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