## Abstract

We evaluate American Express prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP stock.

Keywords: AXP, American Express, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
2. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

## AXP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Express Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of AXP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AXP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AXP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AXP American Express
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

American Express assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP stock.

### Financial State Forecast for AXP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 5582
Market Risk3939
Technical Analysis9067
Fundamental Analysis8676
Risk Unsystematic6465

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 601 signals.

## References

1. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
2. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
3. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
4. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
5. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
7. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AXP stock?
A: AXP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is AXP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP Stock.
Q: Is American Express stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Express is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AXP stock?
A: The consensus rating for AXP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AXP stock?
A: The prediction period for AXP is (n+1 year)