## Abstract

**We evaluate American Express prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP stock.**

**AXP, American Express, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
- Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
- Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

## AXP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Express Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of AXP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Independent T-Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AXP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AXP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**AXP American Express

**Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022**for (n+1 year)

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

American Express assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for AXP Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 55 | 82 |

Market Risk | 39 | 39 |

Technical Analysis | 90 | 67 |

Fundamental Analysis | 86 | 76 |

Risk Unsystematic | 64 | 65 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
- Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
- J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
- Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
- M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
- R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
- Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AXP stock?A: AXP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test

Q: Is AXP stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP Stock.

Q: Is American Express stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for American Express is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of AXP stock?

A: The consensus rating for AXP is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for AXP stock?

A: The prediction period for AXP is (n+1 year)

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