Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy or Sell: AAPL Stock

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. We evaluate Apple Inc. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AAPL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AAPL stock.


Keywords: AAPL, Apple Inc., stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  2. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

AAPL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market investment strategies are complex and rely on an evaluation of vast amounts of data. In recent years, machine learning techniques have increasingly been examined to assess whether they can improve market forecasting when compared with traditional approaches. The objective for this study is to identify directions for future machine learning stock market prediction research based upon a review of current literature. We consider Apple Inc. Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of AAPL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AAPL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AAPL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AAPL Apple Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 12 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AAPL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Apple Inc. assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AAPL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AAPL stock.

Financial State Forecast for AAPL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 6044
Market Risk4672
Technical Analysis6960
Fundamental Analysis8757
Risk Unsystematic5286

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 632 signals.

References

  1. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  2. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  4. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
  5. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  6. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  7. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AAPL stock?
A: AAPL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is AAPL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AAPL Stock.
Q: Is Apple Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Apple Inc. is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AAPL stock?
A: The consensus rating for AAPL is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AAPL stock?
A: The prediction period for AAPL is (n+3 month)

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