## Abstract

**We evaluate Autodesk prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ADSK stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADSK stock.**

**ADSK, Autodesk, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Which neural network is best for prediction?
- Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
- What is a prediction confidence?

## ADSK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Autodesk Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of ADSK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Multiple Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ADSK stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ADSK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**ADSK Autodesk

**Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADSK stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Autodesk assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ADSK stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADSK stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for ADSK Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba1 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 83 | 53 |

Market Risk | 80 | 37 |

Technical Analysis | 77 | 79 |

Fundamental Analysis | 79 | 67 |

Risk Unsystematic | 32 | 87 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
- Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
- N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
- R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
- J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
- Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
- Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ADSK stock?A: ADSK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression

Q: Is ADSK stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADSK Stock.

Q: Is Autodesk stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Autodesk is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of ADSK stock?

A: The consensus rating for ADSK is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for ADSK stock?

A: The prediction period for ADSK is (n+4 weeks)

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