Buy or Sell: ADSK Stock


Abstract

We evaluate Autodesk prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ADSK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADSK stock.


Keywords: ADSK, Autodesk, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

ADSK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Autodesk Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of ADSK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ADSK stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ADSK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ADSK Autodesk
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADSK stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Autodesk assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ADSK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADSK stock.

Financial State Forecast for ADSK Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba3
Operational Risk 8353
Market Risk8037
Technical Analysis7779
Fundamental Analysis7967
Risk Unsystematic3287

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 452 signals.

References

  1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  2. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
  3. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  4. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  5. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
  6. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
  7. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ADSK stock?
A: ADSK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is ADSK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ADSK Stock.
Q: Is Autodesk stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Autodesk is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ADSK stock?
A: The consensus rating for ADSK is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ADSK stock?
A: The prediction period for ADSK is (n+4 weeks)

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