Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy or Sell: LON:ADME Stock (Forecast)

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications. We evaluate ADM ENERGY PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ADME stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ADME stock.


Keywords: LON:ADME, ADM ENERGY PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. Dominated Move

LON:ADME Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Neural networks, as an intelligent data mining method, have been used in many different challenging pattern recognition problems such as stock market prediction. However, there is no formal method to determine the optimal neural network for prediction purpose in the literature. In this paper, two kinds of neural networks, a feed forward multi layer Perceptron (MLP) and an Elman recurrent network, are used to predict a company's stock value based on its stock share value history. We consider ADM ENERGY PLC Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ADME stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ADME stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ADME Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ADME ADM ENERGY PLC
Time series to forecast n: 11 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ADME stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

ADM ENERGY PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ADME stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ADME stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:ADME Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 5169
Market Risk8087
Technical Analysis4563
Fundamental Analysis4031
Risk Unsystematic8879

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 496 signals.

References

  1. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  2. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  3. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  4. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
  5. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  6. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  7. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ADME stock?
A: LON:ADME stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:ADME stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ADME Stock.
Q: Is ADM ENERGY PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ADM ENERGY PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ADME stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ADME is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ADME stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ADME is (n+4 weeks)

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