Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy or Sell: LON:LOGP Stock

The nature of stock market movement has always been ambiguous for investors because of various influential factors. This study aims to significantly reduce the risk of trend prediction with machine learning and deep learning algorithms. We evaluate LANSDOWNE OIL & GAS PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:LOGP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:LOGP stock.


Keywords: LON:LOGP, LANSDOWNE OIL & GAS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. How useful are statistical predictions?
  3. Market Outlook

LON:LOGP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock price prediction has always been a challenging task for the researchers in financial domain. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis claims that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are work in the literature that have demonstrated that stock price movements can be forecasted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, if appropriate variables are chosen and suitable predictive models are built using those variables. In this work, we present a robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods We consider LANSDOWNE OIL & GAS PLC Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:LOGP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:LOGP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:LOGP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:LOGP LANSDOWNE OIL & GAS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 24 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:LOGP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

LANSDOWNE OIL & GAS PLC assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:LOGP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:LOGP stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:LOGP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Baa2
Operational Risk 4569
Market Risk3983
Technical Analysis3172
Fundamental Analysis3961
Risk Unsystematic4888

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 741 signals.

References

  1. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  2. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
  3. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  4. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
  5. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
  6. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  7. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:LOGP stock?
A: LON:LOGP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is LON:LOGP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:LOGP Stock.
Q: Is LANSDOWNE OIL & GAS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LANSDOWNE OIL & GAS PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:LOGP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:LOGP is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:LOGP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:LOGP is (n+16 weeks)



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