Accurate stock market prediction is of great interest to investors; however, stock markets are driven by volatile factors such as microblogs and news that make it hard to predict stock market index based on merely the historical data. The enormous stock market volatility emphasizes the need to effectively assess the role of external factors in stock prediction. Stock markets can be predicted using machine learning algorithms on information contained in social media and financial news, as this data can change investors' behavior. We evaluate TopBuild prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BLD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BLD stock.

Keywords: BLD, TopBuild, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
2. How do you pick a stock?
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms? ## BLD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market predictions are one of the challenging tasks for financial investors across the globe. This challenge is due to the uncertainty and volatility of the stock prices in the market. Due to technology and globalization of business and financial markets it is important to predict the stock prices more quickly and accurately. Last few years there has been much improvement in the field of Neural Network (NN) applications in business and financial markets. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods are mostly implemented and play a vital role in decision making for stock market predictions. We consider TopBuild Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BLD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BLD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## BLD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BLD TopBuild
Time series to forecast n: 15 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BLD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

TopBuild assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BLD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BLD stock.

### Financial State Forecast for BLD Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B2
Operational Risk 4062
Market Risk5238
Technical Analysis5884
Fundamental Analysis5540
Risk Unsystematic5230

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 595 signals.

## References

1. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
2. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
3. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
4. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
5. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
6. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
7. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BLD stock?
A: BLD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is BLD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BLD Stock.
Q: Is TopBuild stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TopBuild is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BLD stock?
A: The consensus rating for BLD is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for BLD stock?
A: The prediction period for BLD is (n+3 month)

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