Buy, Sell, or Hold? (BMY Stock Forecast)


As part of this research, different techniques have been studied for data extraction and analysis. After having reviewed the work related to the initial idea of the research, it is shown the development carried out, together with the data extraction and the machine learning algorithms for prediction used. The calculation of technical analysis metrics is also included. The development of a visualization platform has been proposed for high-level interaction between the user and the recommendation system. We evaluate Bristol Myers Squibb prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BMY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BMY stock.


Keywords: BMY, Bristol Myers Squibb, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Short/Long Term Stocks
  2. Can stock prices be predicted?
  3. What is neural prediction?

BMY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine learning addresses the question of how to build computers that improve automatically through experience. It is one of today's most rapidly growing technical fields, lying at the intersection of computer science and statistics, and at the core of artificial intelligence and data science. We consider Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of BMY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BMY stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BMY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BMY Bristol Myers Squibb
Time series to forecast n: 22 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BMY stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Bristol Myers Squibb assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BMY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BMY stock.

Financial State Forecast for BMY Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 5456
Market Risk5253
Technical Analysis8972
Fundamental Analysis3066
Risk Unsystematic5635

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 545 signals.

References

  1. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  2. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  3. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  4. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
  5. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
  6. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
  7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BMY stock?
A: BMY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is BMY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BMY Stock.
Q: Is Bristol Myers Squibb stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Bristol Myers Squibb is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BMY stock?
A: The consensus rating for BMY is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BMY stock?
A: The prediction period for BMY is (n+1 year)

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