## Abstract

We evaluate Constellation Energy prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CEG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CEG stock.

Keywords: CEG, Constellation Energy, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Why do we need predictive models?
2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

## CEG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Constellation Energy Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of CEG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CEG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## CEG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CEG Constellation Energy
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CEG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Constellation Energy assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CEG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CEG stock.

### Financial State Forecast for CEG Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba2
Operational Risk 3386
Market Risk6788
Technical Analysis3475
Fundamental Analysis7933
Risk Unsystematic8351

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 860 signals.

## References

1. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
2. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
3. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
4. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
5. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
6. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
7. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CEG stock?
A: CEG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is CEG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CEG Stock.
Q: Is Constellation Energy stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Constellation Energy is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CEG stock?
A: The consensus rating for CEG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CEG stock?
A: The prediction period for CEG is (n+16 weeks)

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