Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy, Sell, or Hold? (LON:RCN Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

In this paper we investigate ways to use prior knowledge and neural networks to improve multivariate prediction ability. Daily stock prices are predicted as a complicated real-world problem, taking non-numerical factors such as political and international events are into account. We have studied types of prior knowledge which are difficult to insert into initial network structures or to represent in the form of error measurements. We evaluate REDCENTRIC PLC prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:RCN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:RCN stock.


Keywords: LON:RCN, REDCENTRIC PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How useful are statistical predictions?
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

LON:RCN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. We consider REDCENTRIC PLC Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:RCN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:RCN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:RCN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:RCN REDCENTRIC PLC
Time series to forecast n: 24 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:RCN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

REDCENTRIC PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:RCN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:RCN stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:RCN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba1
Operational Risk 3786
Market Risk8352
Technical Analysis5851
Fundamental Analysis3090
Risk Unsystematic5878

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 788 signals.

References

  1. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
  2. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  3. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  4. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  5. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
  6. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  7. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:RCN stock?
A: LON:RCN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LON:RCN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:RCN Stock.
Q: Is REDCENTRIC PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for REDCENTRIC PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:RCN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:RCN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:RCN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:RCN is (n+4 weeks)

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