Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy, Sell, or Hold? (ORCL Stock Forecast)

Different machine learning algorithms are discussed in this literature review. These algorithms can be used for predicting the stock market. The prediction of the stock market is one of the challenging tasks that must have to be handled. In this paper, it is discussed how the machine learning algorithms can be used for predicting the stock value. We evaluate Oracle Corporation prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ORCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ORCL stock.


Keywords: ORCL, Oracle Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is neural prediction?
  2. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

ORCL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Recently, numerous investigations for stock price prediction and portfolio management using machine learning have been trying to develop efficient mechanical trading systems. But these systems have a limitation in that they are mainly based on the supervised learning which is not so adequate for learning problems with long-term goals and delayed rewards. This paper proposes a method of applying reinforcement learning, suitable for modeling and learning various kinds of interactions in real situations, to the problem of stock price prediction. We consider Oracle Corporation Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of ORCL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ORCL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ORCL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ORCL Oracle Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 11 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ORCL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Oracle Corporation assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ORCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ORCL stock.

Financial State Forecast for ORCL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 5373
Market Risk5340
Technical Analysis4030
Fundamental Analysis7554
Risk Unsystematic6445

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 579 signals.

References

  1. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  2. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  3. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  4. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  5. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
  6. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
  7. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ORCL stock?
A: ORCL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is ORCL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ORCL Stock.
Q: Is Oracle Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Oracle Corporation is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ORCL stock?
A: The consensus rating for ORCL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ORCL stock?
A: The prediction period for ORCL is (n+4 weeks)

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