Buy, Sell, or Hold? (PARA Stock Forecast)


Stock market forecasting is considered to be a challenging topic among time series forecasting. This study proposes a novel two-stage ensemble machine learning model named SVR-ENANFIS for stock price prediction by combining features of support vector regression (SVR) and ensemble adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ENANFIS). We evaluate Paramount (Class B) prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PARA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PARA stock.


Keywords: PARA, Paramount (Class B), stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  2. Prediction Modeling
  3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

PARA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Impact of many factors on the stock prices makes the stock prediction a difficult and highly complicated task. In this paper, machine learning techniques have been applied for the stock price prediction in order to overcome such difficulties. In the implemented work, five models have been developed and their performances are compared in predicting the stock market trends. We consider Paramount (Class B) Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of PARA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PARA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PARA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PARA Paramount (Class B)
Time series to forecast n: 18 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PARA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Paramount (Class B) assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PARA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PARA stock.

Financial State Forecast for PARA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 5942
Market Risk7756
Technical Analysis6985
Fundamental Analysis3763
Risk Unsystematic7084

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 702 signals.

References

  1. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  2. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
  3. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  4. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
  5. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.
  6. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  7. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PARA stock?
A: PARA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is PARA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PARA Stock.
Q: Is Paramount (Class B) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Paramount (Class B) is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PARA stock?
A: The consensus rating for PARA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PARA stock?
A: The prediction period for PARA is (n+4 weeks)

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