Recently, a lot of interesting work has been done in the area of applying Machine Learning Algorithms for analyzing price patterns and predicting stock prices and index changes. Most stock traders nowadays depend on Intelligent Trading Systems which help them in predicting prices based on various situations and conditions, thereby helping them in making instantaneous investment decisions. We evaluate Smucker prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SJM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SJM stock.

Keywords: SJM, Smucker, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. Why do we need predictive models?
3. Reaction Function

## SJM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market is considered chaotic, complex, volatile and dynamic. Undoubtedly, its prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in time series forecasting. Moreover existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches fail to provide encouraging results. Meanwhile advances in machine learning have presented favourable results for speech recognition, image classification and language processing. We consider Smucker Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of SJM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SJM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## SJM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SJM Smucker
Time series to forecast n: 19 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SJM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Smucker assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SJM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SJM stock.

### Financial State Forecast for SJM Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 5959
Market Risk8760
Technical Analysis4982
Fundamental Analysis3057
Risk Unsystematic6485

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 530 signals.

## References

1. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
2. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
3. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
4. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
5. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
6. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
7. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SJM stock?
A: SJM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is SJM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SJM Stock.
Q: Is Smucker stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Smucker is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SJM stock?
A: The consensus rating for SJM is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for SJM stock?
A: The prediction period for SJM is (n+1 year)