Can neural networks predict stock market? (ESS Stock Forecast)


A speculator on a Stock Market, aside from having money to spare, needs at least one other thing — a means of producing accurate and understandable predictions ahead of others in the Market, so that a tactical and price advantage can be gained. This work demonstrates that it is possible to predict one such Market to a high degree of accuracy. We evaluate Essex Property Trust prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ESS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESS stock.


Keywords: ESS, Essex Property Trust, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. Reaction Function

ESS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This paper surveys machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. The prediction of stock markets is regarded as a challenging task of financial time series prediction. We consider Essex Property Trust Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of ESS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ESS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ESS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ESS Essex Property Trust
Time series to forecast n: 14 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Essex Property Trust assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ESS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESS stock.

Financial State Forecast for ESS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba1
Operational Risk 6371
Market Risk4541
Technical Analysis8989
Fundamental Analysis4956
Risk Unsystematic5390

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 541 signals.

References

  1. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  2. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
  3. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
  4. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  5. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  6. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
  7. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ESS stock?
A: ESS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is ESS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESS Stock.
Q: Is Essex Property Trust stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Essex Property Trust is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ESS stock?
A: The consensus rating for ESS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ESS stock?
A: The prediction period for ESS is (n+6 month)

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