Can neural networks predict stock market? (GPC Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Genuine Parts Company prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GPC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GPC stock.

Keywords: GPC, Genuine Parts Company, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
2. Short/Long Term Stocks
3. Prediction Modeling

GPC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Genuine Parts Company Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of GPC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GPC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GPC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GPC Genuine Parts Company
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GPC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Genuine Parts Company assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GPC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GPC stock.

Financial State Forecast for GPC Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba3
Operational Risk	71	64
Market Risk	89	64
Technical Analysis	42	53
Fundamental Analysis	54	67
Risk Unsystematic	80	79

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 854 signals.

References

1. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
2. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
3. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
4. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
5. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
6. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
7. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for GPC stock?
A: GPC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is GPC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GPC Stock.
Q: Is Genuine Parts Company stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Genuine Parts Company is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GPC stock?
A: The consensus rating for GPC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GPC stock?
A: The prediction period for GPC is (n+6 month)

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