Can neural networks predict stock market? (LON:KNOS Stock Forecast)


Stock price forecasting is a popular and important topic in financial and academic studies. Share market is an volatile place for predicting since there are no significant rules to estimate or predict the price of a share in the share market. Many methods like technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis and statistical analysis etc. are used to predict the price in tie share market but none of these methods are proved as a consistently acceptable prediction tool. In this paper, we implemented a Random Forest approach to predict stock market prices. We evaluate KAINOS GROUP PLC prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:KNOS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:KNOS stock.


Keywords: LON:KNOS, KAINOS GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Dominated Move
  2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

LON:KNOS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The stock market has been an attractive field for a large number of organizers and investors to derive useful predictions. Fundamental knowledge of stock market can be utilised with technical indicators to investigate different perspectives of the financial market; also, the influence of various events, financial news, and/or opinions on investors' decisions and hence, market trends have been observed. Such information can be exploited to make reliable predictions and achieve higher profitability. Computational intelligence has emerged with various deep neural network (DNN) techniques to address complex stock market problems. We consider KAINOS GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:KNOS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:KNOS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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LON:KNOS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:KNOS KAINOS GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 14 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:KNOS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

KAINOS GROUP PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:KNOS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:KNOS stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:KNOS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 4734
Market Risk6660
Technical Analysis8073
Fundamental Analysis7542
Risk Unsystematic3772

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 726 signals.

References

  1. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  2. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
  3. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  4. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  5. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  6. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  7. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:KNOS stock?
A: LON:KNOS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:KNOS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:KNOS Stock.
Q: Is KAINOS GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for KAINOS GROUP PLC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:KNOS stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:KNOS is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:KNOS stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:KNOS is (n+1 year)

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