Can neural networks predict stock market? (ATVI Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Activision Blizzard prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ATVI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATVI stock.

Keywords: ATVI, Activision Blizzard, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
3. Operational Risk

ATVI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Activision Blizzard Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of ATVI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ATVI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ATVI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ATVI Activision Blizzard
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATVI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Activision Blizzard assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ATVI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATVI stock.

Financial State Forecast for ATVI Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba2
Operational Risk	30	59
Market Risk	69	78
Technical Analysis	78	74
Fundamental Analysis	76	37
Risk Unsystematic	39	87

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 454 signals.

References

1. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
2. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
3. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
4. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
5. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
6. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
7. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ATVI stock?
A: ATVI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is ATVI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATVI Stock.
Q: Is Activision Blizzard stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Activision Blizzard is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ATVI stock?
A: The consensus rating for ATVI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ATVI stock?
A: The prediction period for ATVI is (n+1 year)

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