Can neural networks predict stock market? (LON:USF Stock Forecast)

It has never been easy to invest in a set of assets, the abnormally of financial market does not allow simple models to predict future asset values with higher accuracy. Machine learning, which consist of making computers perform tasks that normally requiring human intelligence is currently the dominant trend in scientific research. This article aims to build a model using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and especially Long-Short Term Memory model (LSTM) to predict future stock market values. We evaluate US SOLAR FUND PLC prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:USF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:USF stock.

Keywords: LON:USF, US SOLAR FUND PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Is now good time to invest?
2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
3. Prediction Modeling

LON:USF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models which are known to be dynamic and effective in stock-market predictions. We consider US SOLAR FUND PLC Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:USF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:USF stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:USF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:USF US SOLAR FUND PLC
Time series to forecast n: 19 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:USF stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

US SOLAR FUND PLC assigned short-term B3 & long-term Caa1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:USF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:USF stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:USF Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Caa1
Operational Risk	32	45
Market Risk	44	36
Technical Analysis	59	37
Fundamental Analysis	80	37
Risk Unsystematic	39	41

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 850 signals.

References

1. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
2. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
3. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
4. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
5. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
6. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
7. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:USF stock?
A: LON:USF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is LON:USF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:USF Stock.
Q: Is US SOLAR FUND PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for US SOLAR FUND PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Caa1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:USF stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:USF is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:USF stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:USF is (n+4 weeks)

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