Can neural networks predict stock market? (NUS Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate Nu Skin Enterprises prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NUS stock.


Keywords: NUS, Nu Skin Enterprises, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Short/Long Term Stocks
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

NUS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Nu Skin Enterprises Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NUS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NUS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NUS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NUS Nu Skin Enterprises
Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NUS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Nu Skin Enterprises assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NUS stock.

Financial State Forecast for NUS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 3182
Market Risk7730
Technical Analysis3842
Fundamental Analysis8165
Risk Unsystematic3652

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 759 signals.

References

  1. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  2. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  4. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  5. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  6. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  7. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NUS stock?
A: NUS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is NUS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NUS Stock.
Q: Is Nu Skin Enterprises stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nu Skin Enterprises is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NUS stock?
A: The consensus rating for NUS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NUS stock?
A: The prediction period for NUS is (n+16 weeks)

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