## Abstract

**We evaluate AEX Index prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AEX Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index stock.**

**AEX Index, AEX Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- What are the most successful trading algorithms?
- Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
- What is a prediction confidence?

## AEX Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AEX Index Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of AEX Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Pearson Correlation)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEX Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AEX Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**AEX Index AEX Index

**Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

AEX Index assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AEX Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for AEX Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B3 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 35 | 37 |

Market Risk | 45 | 31 |

Technical Analysis | 70 | 83 |

Fundamental Analysis | 46 | 53 |

Risk Unsystematic | 43 | 45 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
- Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
- G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
- Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
- S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
- Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AEX Index stock?A: AEX Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation

Q: Is AEX Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEX Index Stock.

Q: Is AEX Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for AEX Index is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of AEX Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for AEX Index is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for AEX Index stock?

A: The prediction period for AEX Index is (n+16 weeks)

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