Can neural networks predict stock market? (RL Stock Forecast)


This study presents financial network indicators that can be applied to global stock market investment strategies. We propose to design both undirected and directed volatility networks of global stock market based on simple pair-wise correlation and system-wide connectedness of stock date using a vector auto-regressive model. We evaluate Ralph Lauren Corporation prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold RL stock.


Keywords: RL, Ralph Lauren Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

RL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of stocks is complicated by the dynamic, complex, and chaotic environment of the stock market. Many studies predict stock price movements using deep learning models. Although the attention mechanism has gained popularity recently in neural machine translation, little focus has been devoted to attention-based deep learning models for stock prediction. We consider Ralph Lauren Corporation Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of RL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

RL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RL Ralph Lauren Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 11 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold RL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Ralph Lauren Corporation assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold RL stock.

Financial State Forecast for RL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Baa2
Operational Risk 8070
Market Risk8169
Technical Analysis7090
Fundamental Analysis8074
Risk Unsystematic5665

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 647 signals.

References

  1. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
  2. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  3. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
  4. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
  7. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for RL stock?
A: RL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is RL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold RL Stock.
Q: Is Ralph Lauren Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ralph Lauren Corporation is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RL stock?
A: The consensus rating for RL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for RL stock?
A: The prediction period for RL is (n+16 weeks)

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As AC Investment Research, our goal is to do fundamental research, bring forward a totally new, scientific technology and create frameworks for objective forecasting using machine learning and fundamentals of Game Theory.

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