Can stock prices be predicted? (AEP Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate American Electric Power prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEP stock.


Keywords: AEP, American Electric Power, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. What is neural prediction?

AEP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Electric Power Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of AEP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AEP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AEP American Electric Power
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

American Electric Power assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEP stock.

Financial State Forecast for AEP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Baa2
Operational Risk 4068
Market Risk4984
Technical Analysis6487
Fundamental Analysis7263
Risk Unsystematic5465

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 537 signals.

References

  1. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  2. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  3. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  4. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
  5. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  6. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  7. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AEP stock?
A: AEP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is AEP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEP Stock.
Q: Is American Electric Power stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Electric Power is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AEP stock?
A: The consensus rating for AEP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AEP stock?
A: The prediction period for AEP is (n+4 weeks)

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