Can stock prices be predicted? (AEP Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate American Electric Power prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEP stock.

Keywords: AEP, American Electric Power, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
2. Trust metric by Neural Network
3. What is neural prediction?

AEP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Electric Power Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of AEP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AEP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AEP American Electric Power
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

American Electric Power assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEP stock.

Financial State Forecast for AEP Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Baa2
Operational Risk	40	68
Market Risk	49	84
Technical Analysis	64	87
Fundamental Analysis	72	63
Risk Unsystematic	54	65

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 537 signals.

References

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AEP stock?
A: AEP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is AEP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEP Stock.
Q: Is American Electric Power stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Electric Power is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AEP stock?
A: The consensus rating for AEP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AEP stock?
A: The prediction period for AEP is (n+4 weeks)

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