Can stock prices be predicted? (AEX Index Stock Forecast)

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models which are known to be dynamic and effective in stock-market predictions. We evaluate AEX Index prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEX Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AEX Index stock.

Keywords: AEX Index, AEX Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

AEX Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine learning is a branch of computer science that has the potential to transform epidemiologic sciences. Amid a growing focus on "Big Data," it offers epidemiologists new tools to tackle problems for which classical methods are not well-suited. In order to critically evaluate the value of integrating machine learning algorithms and existing methods, however, it is essential to address language and technical barriers between the two fields that can make it difficult for epidemiologists to read and assess machine learning studies. We consider AEX Index Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of AEX Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEX Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AEX Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AEX Index AEX Index
Time series to forecast n: 23 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AEX Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

AEX Index assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEX Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AEX Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for AEX Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba3
Operational Risk	66	66
Market Risk	76	72
Technical Analysis	89	58
Fundamental Analysis	36	61
Risk Unsystematic	79	58

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 646 signals.

References

1. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
2. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
3. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
4. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
5. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
6. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
7. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AEX Index stock?
A: AEX Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is AEX Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AEX Index Stock.
Q: Is AEX Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AEX Index is Sell and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AEX Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for AEX Index is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AEX Index stock?
A: The prediction period for AEX Index is (n+6 month)

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