In the finance world stock trading is one of the most important activities. Stock market prediction is an act of trying to determine the future value of a stock other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. This paper explains the prediction of a stock using Machine Learning. The technical and fundamental or the time series analysis is used by the most of the stockbrokers while making the stock predictions. We evaluate BASF prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BAS.DE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BAS.DE stock.

Keywords: BAS.DE, BASF, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

## BAS.DE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We consider BASF Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BAS.DE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BAS.DE stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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## BAS.DE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BAS.DE BASF
Time series to forecast n: 23 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BAS.DE stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

BASF assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BAS.DE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BAS.DE stock.

### Financial State Forecast for BAS.DE Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 7866
Market Risk5563
Technical Analysis3541
Fundamental Analysis4283
Risk Unsystematic8461

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 806 signals.

## References

1. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
2. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
3. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
4. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
5. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
6. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
7. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BAS.DE stock?
A: BAS.DE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is BAS.DE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BAS.DE Stock.
Q: Is BASF stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BASF is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BAS.DE stock?
A: The consensus rating for BAS.DE is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for BAS.DE stock?
A: The prediction period for BAS.DE is (n+6 month)

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