Can stock prices be predicted? (SEB Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

It has never been easy to invest in a set of assets, the abnormally of financial market does not allow simple models to predict future asset values with higher accuracy. Machine learning, which consist of making computers perform tasks that normally requiring human intelligence is currently the dominant trend in scientific research. This article aims to build a model using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and especially Long-Short Term Memory model (LSTM) to predict future stock market values. We evaluate Seaboard prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SEB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SEB stock.

Keywords: SEB, Seaboard, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Trading Signals
2. Can statistics predict the future?
3. Market Risk

SEB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We consider Seaboard Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of SEB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SEB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SEB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SEB Seaboard
Time series to forecast n: 21 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SEB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Seaboard assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SEB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SEB stock.

Financial State Forecast for SEB Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	82	66
Market Risk	56	70
Technical Analysis	60	33
Fundamental Analysis	66	59
Risk Unsystematic	37	49

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 588 signals.

References

1. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
2. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
3. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
4. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
5. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
6. J. Z. Leibo, V. Zambaldi, M. Lanctot, J. Marecki, and T. Graepel. Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning in Sequential Social Dilemmas. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2017), Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017
7. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for SEB stock?
A: SEB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is SEB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SEB Stock.
Q: Is Seaboard stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Seaboard is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SEB stock?
A: The consensus rating for SEB is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SEB stock?
A: The prediction period for SEB is (n+1 year)

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