Can stock prices be predicted? (SMI Index Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate SMI Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

Keywords: SMI Index, SMI Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Trading Interaction
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

SMI Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SMI Index Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of SMI Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SMI Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SMI Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SMI Index SMI Index
Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

SMI Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for SMI Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Operational Risk	48	79
Market Risk	66	69
Technical Analysis	62	41
Fundamental Analysis	47	73
Risk Unsystematic	38	46

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 534 signals.

References

1. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
2. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
3. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
4. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
5. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
6. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for SMI Index stock?
A: SMI Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is SMI Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index Stock.
Q: Is SMI Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SMI Index is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SMI Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for SMI Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SMI Index stock?
A: The prediction period for SMI Index is (n+3 month)

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