Can stock prices be predicted? (Tadawul All Share Index Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Tadawul All Share Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Tadawul All Share Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Tadawul All Share Index stock.

Keywords: Tadawul All Share Index, Tadawul All Share Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
3. Prediction Modeling

Tadawul All Share Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Tadawul All Share Index Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of Tadawul All Share Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Tadawul All Share Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Tadawul All Share Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Tadawul All Share Index Tadawul All Share Index
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Tadawul All Share Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Tadawul All Share Index assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Tadawul All Share Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Tadawul All Share Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Tadawul All Share Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Ba1
Operational Risk	40	84
Market Risk	36	41
Technical Analysis	39	72
Fundamental Analysis	34	68
Risk Unsystematic	88	83

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 820 signals.

References

1. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
2. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
3. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
4. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
5. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
7. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for Tadawul All Share Index stock?
A: Tadawul All Share Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is Tadawul All Share Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Tadawul All Share Index Stock.
Q: Is Tadawul All Share Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Tadawul All Share Index is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Tadawul All Share Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Tadawul All Share Index is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for Tadawul All Share Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Tadawul All Share Index is (n+8 weeks)

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