Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (LON:ARGO Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. We evaluate ARGO GROUP LIMITED prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ARGO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:ARGO stock.


Keywords: LON:ARGO, ARGO GROUP LIMITED, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can machine learning predict?
  2. Stock Rating
  3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

LON:ARGO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market or Share market is one of the most complicated and sophisticated way to do business. Small ownerships, brokerage corporations, banking sector, all depend on this very body to make revenue and divide risks; a very complicated model. However, this paper proposes to use machine learning algorithm to predict the future stock price for exchange by using open source libraries and preexisting algorithms to help make this unpredictable format of business a little more predictable. We consider ARGO GROUP LIMITED Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ARGO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ARGO stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ARGO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ARGO ARGO GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 10 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:ARGO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

ARGO GROUP LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ARGO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:ARGO stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:ARGO Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 3035
Market Risk5368
Technical Analysis8737
Fundamental Analysis8965
Risk Unsystematic5147

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 876 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  2. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
  3. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  4. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  5. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  6. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
  7. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ARGO stock?
A: LON:ARGO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:ARGO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:ARGO Stock.
Q: Is ARGO GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ARGO GROUP LIMITED is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ARGO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ARGO is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ARGO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ARGO is (n+8 weeks)

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