Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (META Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Meta Platforms prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the META stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold META stock.

Keywords: META, Meta Platforms, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How useful are statistical predictions?
2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

META Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Meta Platforms Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of META stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of META stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

META Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: META Meta Platforms
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold META stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Meta Platforms assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the META stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold META stock.

Financial State Forecast for META Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba1
Operational Risk	70	60
Market Risk	86	77
Technical Analysis	37	74
Fundamental Analysis	76	77
Risk Unsystematic	76	71

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 540 signals.

References

1. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
2. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
3. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
4. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
5. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
6. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
7. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for META stock?
A: META stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is META stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold META Stock.
Q: Is Meta Platforms stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Meta Platforms is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of META stock?
A: The consensus rating for META is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for META stock?
A: The prediction period for META is (n+3 month)

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