Does algo trading work? (ASH Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate Ashland Global prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASH stock.


Keywords: ASH, Ashland Global, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  2. What is neural prediction?
  3. Game Theory

ASH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ashland Global Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ASH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ASH stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ASH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ASH Ashland Global
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Ashland Global assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASH stock.

Financial State Forecast for ASH Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Operational Risk 4343
Market Risk6158
Technical Analysis4083
Fundamental Analysis8987
Risk Unsystematic8763

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 642 signals.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  2. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
  3. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
  4. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
  5. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
  6. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
  7. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ASH stock?
A: ASH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is ASH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ASH Stock.
Q: Is Ashland Global stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ashland Global is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ASH stock?
A: The consensus rating for ASH is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ASH stock?
A: The prediction period for ASH is (n+3 month)

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