Does algo trading work? (LUMN Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Lumen prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LUMN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LUMN stock.

Keywords: LUMN, Lumen, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Trading Interaction
2. Trust metric by Neural Network
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

LUMN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Lumen Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LUMN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LUMN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LUMN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LUMN Lumen
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LUMN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Lumen assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LUMN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LUMN stock.

Financial State Forecast for LUMN Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Caa2	B1
Operational Risk	46	62
Market Risk	71	53
Technical Analysis	33	40
Fundamental Analysis	38	58
Risk Unsystematic	32	82

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 477 signals.

References

1. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
2. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
3. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
4. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
5. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
6. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
7. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LUMN stock?
A: LUMN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LUMN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LUMN Stock.
Q: Is Lumen stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Lumen is Buy and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LUMN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LUMN is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LUMN stock?
A: The prediction period for LUMN is (n+1 year)

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