Modelling A.I. in Economics

Does algo trading work? (RNO.PA Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

The stock market is one of the key sectors of a country's economy. It provides investors with an opportunity to invest and gain returns on their investment. Predicting the stock market is a very challenging task and has attracted serious interest from researchers from many fields such as statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, and finance. An accurate prediction of the stock market reduces investment risk in the market. Different approaches have been used to predict the stock market. The performances of Machine learning (ML) models are typically superior to those of statistical and econometric models. We evaluate Renault prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RNO.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RNO.PA stock.


Keywords: RNO.PA, Renault, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. Market Signals

RNO.PA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market also called as equity market is the aggregation of the sellers and buyers. It is concerned with the domain where the shares of various public listed companies are traded. For predicting the growth of economy, stock market acts as an index. Due to the nonlinear nature, the prediction of the stock market becomes a difficult task. But the application of various machine learning techniques has been becoming a powerful source for the prediction. We consider Renault Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of RNO.PA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RNO.PA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

RNO.PA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RNO.PA Renault
Time series to forecast n: 25 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RNO.PA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Renault assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RNO.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RNO.PA stock.

Financial State Forecast for RNO.PA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 6081
Market Risk4430
Technical Analysis6885
Fundamental Analysis5986
Risk Unsystematic8142

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 456 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  2. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
  3. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  4. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
  5. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  6. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  7. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for RNO.PA stock?
A: RNO.PA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is RNO.PA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RNO.PA Stock.
Q: Is Renault stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Renault is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RNO.PA stock?
A: The consensus rating for RNO.PA is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for RNO.PA stock?
A: The prediction period for RNO.PA is (n+6 month)

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