## Abstract

**We evaluate S&P/ASX 200 Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the S&P/ASX 200 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold S&P/ASX 200 Index stock.**

**S&P/ASX 200 Index, S&P/ASX 200 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- What are main components of Markov decision process?
- Trading Interaction
- Trust metric by Neural Network

## S&P/ASX 200 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of S&P/ASX 200 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Linear Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of S&P/ASX 200 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**S&P/ASX 200 Index S&P/ASX 200 Index

**Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022**for (n+6 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold S&P/ASX 200 Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

S&P/ASX 200 Index assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Linear Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the S&P/ASX 200 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold S&P/ASX 200 Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 83 | 46 |

Market Risk | 69 | 72 |

Technical Analysis | 76 | 38 |

Fundamental Analysis | 77 | 45 |

Risk Unsystematic | 30 | 90 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
- Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
- Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
- Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for S&P/ASX 200 Index stock?A: S&P/ASX 200 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression

Q: Is S&P/ASX 200 Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock.

Q: Is S&P/ASX 200 Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for S&P/ASX 200 Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of S&P/ASX 200 Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for S&P/ASX 200 Index is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for S&P/ASX 200 Index stock?

A: The prediction period for S&P/ASX 200 Index is (n+6 month)