## Abstract

**We evaluate H&R Block prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HRB stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellHold HRB stock.**

**HRB, H&R Block, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Market Signals
- What is prediction model?
- What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

## HRB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider H&R Block Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of HRB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Lasso Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({a}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HRB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HRB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**HRB H&R Block

**Time series to forecast n: 05 Sep 2022**for (n+8 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellHold HRB stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

H&R Block assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HRB stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellHold HRB stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for HRB Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba2 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 69 | 31 |

Market Risk | 47 | 47 |

Technical Analysis | 78 | 64 |

Fundamental Analysis | 86 | 80 |

Risk Unsystematic | 67 | 66 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
- D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
- Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
- M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
- S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
- E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
- Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HRB stock?A: HRB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression

Q: Is HRB stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellHold HRB Stock.

Q: Is H&R Block stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for H&R Block is SellHold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of HRB stock?

A: The consensus rating for HRB is SellHold.

Q: What is the prediction period for HRB stock?

A: The prediction period for HRB is (n+8 weeks)