## Abstract

**We evaluate KOSPI Index prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the KOSPI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KOSPI Index stock.**

**KOSPI Index, KOSPI Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Why do we need predictive models?
- Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
- Market Risk

## KOSPI Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider KOSPI Index Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of KOSPI Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Stepwise Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KOSPI Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## KOSPI Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**KOSPI Index KOSPI Index

**Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022**for (n+1 year)

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KOSPI Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

KOSPI Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Stepwise Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the KOSPI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KOSPI Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for KOSPI Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 39 | 67 |

Market Risk | 85 | 61 |

Technical Analysis | 36 | 50 |

Fundamental Analysis | 75 | 52 |

Risk Unsystematic | 31 | 75 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
- Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
- Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
- Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
- Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
- Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for KOSPI Index stock?A: KOSPI Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression

Q: Is KOSPI Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KOSPI Index Stock.

Q: Is KOSPI Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for KOSPI Index is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of KOSPI Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for KOSPI Index is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for KOSPI Index stock?

A: The prediction period for KOSPI Index is (n+1 year)

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