How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (LON:AMGO Stock Forecast)


This paper tries to address the problem of stock market prediction leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) strategies. The stock market prediction can be modeled based on two principal analyses called technical and fundamental. In the technical analysis approach, the regression machine learning (ML) algorithms are employed to predict the stock price trend at the end of a business day based on the historical price data. In contrast, in the fundamental analysis, the classification ML algorithms are applied to classify the public sentiment based on news and social media. We evaluate AMIGO HOLDINGS PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AMGO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AMGO stock.


Keywords: LON:AMGO, AMIGO HOLDINGS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

LON:AMGO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In modern financial market, the most crucial problem is to find essential approach to outline and visualizing the predictions in stock-markets to be made by individuals in order to attain maximum profit by investments. The stock market is a transformative, non-straight dynamical and complex system. Long term investment is one of the major investment decisions. Though, evaluating shares and calculating elementary values for companies for long term investment is difficult. In this paper we are going to present comparison of machine learning aided algorithms to evaluate the stock prices in the future to analyze market behaviour. We consider AMIGO HOLDINGS PLC Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AMGO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AMGO stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:AMGO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AMGO AMIGO HOLDINGS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 19 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AMGO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

AMIGO HOLDINGS PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AMGO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AMGO stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:AMGO Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 7582
Market Risk4860
Technical Analysis8581
Fundamental Analysis5555
Risk Unsystematic7139

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 778 signals.

References

  1. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  2. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  4. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
  5. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
  6. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  7. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AMGO stock?
A: LON:AMGO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LON:AMGO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AMGO Stock.
Q: Is AMIGO HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AMIGO HOLDINGS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AMGO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AMGO is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AMGO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AMGO is (n+16 weeks)

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