How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (EXP Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Eagle Materials prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXP stock.

Keywords: EXP, Eagle Materials, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Reaction Function
2. What is a prediction confidence?
3. How do you pick a stock?

EXP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Eagle Materials Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of EXP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EXP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EXP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EXP Eagle Materials
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Eagle Materials assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXP stock.

Financial State Forecast for EXP Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B1
Operational Risk	36	72
Market Risk	56	85
Technical Analysis	40	58
Fundamental Analysis	65	34
Risk Unsystematic	84	34

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 622 signals.

References

1. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
2. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
3. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
4. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
5. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
6. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
7. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for EXP stock?
A: EXP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is EXP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXP Stock.
Q: Is Eagle Materials stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Eagle Materials is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EXP stock?
A: The consensus rating for EXP is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for EXP stock?
A: The prediction period for EXP is (n+1 year)

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