## Abstract

**We evaluate Eagle Materials prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Chi-Square ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the EXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXP stock.**

**EXP, Eagle Materials, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Reaction Function
- What is a prediction confidence?
- How do you pick a stock?

## EXP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Eagle Materials Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of EXP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Chi-Square)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EXP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## EXP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**EXP Eagle Materials

**Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022**for (n+1 year)

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXP stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Eagle Materials assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Chi-Square ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the EXP stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXP stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for EXP Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 36 | 72 |

Market Risk | 56 | 85 |

Technical Analysis | 40 | 58 |

Fundamental Analysis | 65 | 34 |

Risk Unsystematic | 84 | 34 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
- A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
- H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
- Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
- D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
- C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for EXP stock?A: EXP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Chi-Square

Q: Is EXP stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXP Stock.

Q: Is Eagle Materials stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Eagle Materials is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of EXP stock?

A: The consensus rating for EXP is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for EXP stock?

A: The prediction period for EXP is (n+1 year)

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